Nifty 50 future prediction, can we predict for the next 10 years, 15 years?.

and The answer is yes and No both.

But for doing that, you need to have some assumptions, and some existing data for nifty 50 is required.

And please be aware that these are assumptions.

There is no guarantee that the assumption will come true.

And there is no harm; try to predict the nifty 50 levels in the future before investing your hard-earned money.

Before jumping into the topic, let me explain one example about farming.

I am from a village background.

In addition, our village people will cultivate primarily rice.

Some years,.Farmers are able to get 40 to 50 bags of rice from 1 acre.

Sometimes, the bags will be only around 25 to around due to reasons like heavy rains, etc. at the wrong time.

Moreover, the cost of farmland will have a higher price in the village when they are able to cultivate more bags of rice.

If they are able to cultivate a lesser number of rice bags, the demand for farmland will be less.

And the price of the land in the village will be less than the previous year.

Hence, when more rice bags produced, demand for farm land will increase and price of land will increase

and in case fewer bags are produced, the demand for farmland will decrease and the process of the land will decrease.

Similarly, Nifty levels also fluctuate up and down depending on the profitability of the companies in it.

If the companies post higher profits, then in that year nifty will trade at a higher price and will go up.

Similarly, if the companies in nifty post lesser profits, then nifty will correct.

Hence it all depends on the profitability of the companies in nifty 50.

Here, Nifty 50 future prediction can be using Nifty EPS and its P/E.

The P/E and EPS, or nifty, are the parameters used for nifty 50 profitability.

Its nothing but the total profitability of the 50 companies exists in the Nifty 50 index.

Understand Nifty EPS and Nifty P/E…

Now, you can see in the above image that the nifty is closed at 24004 on 03-01-2025.

In addition, you can see that the Nifty P/E ratio is 22.12.

The P/E ratio is nothing compared to the price-to-earning ratio of nifty.

I.e., Nifty trading 22.12 times extra to its earnings.

Now, if you divide the nifty present price with the P/E value, you will get the nifty earnings. ( consolidated earnings of shares of nifty.)

If you dived so, nifty earnings value comes as 1085.17179. Which is called earning per share, or EPS of nifty 50.

In addition, this EPS of nifty will be declared every quarter.

And the investors tend to pay more than the existing EPS of nifty when there is a positive sentiment in the market.

And sometimes less than the present EPS of nifty when there is negative sentiment in the market.

Now, Let’s Nifty 50 future prediction can be done using some assumptions and calculations.

Earlier, we understood that if the production is higher, the earning of the farmland will be higher. and price of the land in the village go up due to demand and positive sentiment.

Similarly, if the earnings or profits of companies available in the nifty 50 are more.

Then the earnings of INDEX will also be higher.

And the price of the nifty will go up due to demand and positive sentiment among investors.

You can see in the above that I have assumed a different earnings growth rate for 10 years in the first row.

In addition, I calculated Nifty earnings by the future value of the Nifty earnings for a 10-year period in the second row for the above assumed earnings growth rates.

You should remember that in actual life, sometimes negative growth will also be there.

For simplicity purposes, I have assumed growths are positive in the entire 10-year period.

You can see in the above image that the index is trading at 28146.56141 if earnings grow by 10% per year from now, and if investors are willing to buy the index 10 times extra to the earnings.

Again, the index will be trading at 36,836.88772, if earnings growth is 13% and investors are willing to buy 10 times extra to the earnings.

 

 

In a similar way, I have calculated the index levels for 15, 20, 25, and 30 times the earnings of the index for different earnings growth rate.

and the green cell on the left side shows how many times extra that investors are willing to buy on nifty earnings.

What is the right time to buy Nifty 50? …

For example, if a hotel is giving a profit of Rs. 1,00,000 per month.

And for some reasons, the hotel owner wants to sell the hotel.

if a buyer came and offered to buy the hotel for 12 lakh.

If you notice that the buyer of the hotel will come into profit only after the hotel gives him 12 lakh profit only.

Because the buyer has confidence that the hotel will continue giving profits for many years.

Hence, he felt no harm in paying 12 times extra to the monthly earnings of the hotel.

When it comes to nifty 50, it will declare its earnings or profits every three months.

Just like the example I gave example.

Here investors also should know how much premium.

i.e., extra paying, is a good reard ratio for them.

Moreover, at present, nifty 50 is trading at 22 p/e levels.

So, it means investors are paying 22 times extra to its earnings.

In an earlier example of a hotel, it will take 12 months for the break even in the hotel that the buyer bought.

Here, in the case of an index we are talking about in this article, the investor is paying 22 times extra to its earnings.

That means it will take 22 quarters for the investors for the breakeven.

Finally, it is very clear that if you pay a premium for buying the index,.

And Nifty earnings have to grow at a much higher rate in order for the Nifty to go up in the future.

Which is every difficult to continue more than 15% growth in earnings.

So, it is very clear that if you buy Nifty 50 when its earnings are reasonably low,.

If you do so, even though nifty earning growth is low.

Then you will get a decent rate of return from your investment.

But that does not mean if you buy Nifty 50 when its earnings are high.

But the chances of higher earnings growth are minimal, and the chances of getting a higher rate of return are also low.

However, you may need the other parameters from fundamentals to arrive at earnings growth expectations for the coming years.

Financially, it is very clear that if you invest price to earnings are low only, you are getting good profits.

In addition, you need patience to capture such opportunities.

Or at least you should follow asset allocation, and then whatever may be the p/e of Nifty, you will end up with better risk-adjusted ROI from your investments.

Because how many times extra to nifty 50 other investors are willing to pay at the end of 10 years from now is not in your hands.

You can control only what is in your hand.

I.e., asset allocation only.

So, this is the process for Nifty 50 future prediction. But remember, it gives an idea and will not reduce the risk.

In addition, you should have your own risk-management process.

Read an article about—Is it safe to invest in 2025?.

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