Real Estate Investment-are you looking to do? Wait…

People those who are doing Real estate Investment or about to invest invest do not know a big problem that they are going to face in future.

Yes, What I am saying is right. Don’t you believe me?

Then Read this article till the end. You will understand what I am saying…

Read this article why real estate investment is bad reasons? Click here to read.

Real Estate Investment-are you looking to do? Wait...
Real Estate Investment-are you looking to do? why should Wait?…

What is the Investment style of Indians in the Real estate to create wealth?…

We Indians, especially South Indian People that we will get more return from real estate investment.

Moreover, In this process we buy land or house for investment with loan when we do not have full money in our hand.

Here, in this article, I will tell you how much you are losing by doing this kind of real estate investment with the loan.

Is there is a better investment than real estate investment to invest for your financial goals?

yes, It is available.

if you invest in Mutual fund monthly, unlike real estate you have higher chances to accumulate more wealth than real estate investment with the loan.

In addition, I will tell you how to accumulate more wealth than real estate investment and also will tell you how to accumulate wealth in installments.

What is the proof that You can accumulate more wealth in mutual funds equity than real estate investment?

Let’s Take an Example and analyze two scenarios and understand, whether it is good to invest in real estate with loan or not?

You have 10 lakh in his hand, he would like to invest in land, or house to get profit.

In addition, the cost of the land is worth 20 lakh as a result of this Mr. X has taken loan from bank of 10 lakh at interest rate of 12% ( per year). Loan Tenure is 60 months.

In addition, The return expected from both Equity Mutual Fund investment and real estate investment is 15% per year.

Here, Please do not argue that you will get more return than equity mutual funds. There is no base or proof for that.

Scenario 1) If you have done real estate investment with a loan then let’s what will happen after 5 years?…

As I said above if you have invested 20 lakh in land ( 10 lakh own money 10 lakh loan from bank with interest rate of 10% per year.

Moreover, the loan tenure is 60 months).

In the above scenario what is the total amount invested and the return on investment let’s analyze.

What is the total amount invested in this land ( real estate) investment in this scenario?

Here, in this land investment Your investment is 20 ( 10 lakh own money + 10 lakh loan ).

But You should not ignore one more thing i.e the interest part that you are paying for this land investment.

As your E.M.I contains principal and interest part, you should consider interest part is also as invested amount.

What is the E.M.I for the loan for this land (real estate) investment?

So, the total amount paid for loan Principal + Interest = 21,247.04*60

i.e Principal paid + Interest = 12,74,822.68.

Here, If you deduct loan taken from above value, You will get the total interest paid towards the loan in 60 months time.

i.e The Total Interest Paid = 12,74,822.68 – 10,00,000 = 2,74,822.68.

So, It is very clear that you have invested Rs.22,74,822.68 not 20 lakh as you are thinking.

What is the future value of the land ( real estate investment ) after 5 years?

As we have assumed the return expected from this investment is 15% per year and amount invested is 20 lakh.

Here, In this calculation we should not take interest paid as investment in land.

As this interest is paid to bank not to the land seller.

What is the return from this land ( real investment) for you in 5 years?…

Normally, It is very easy for us to calculate on investment if you invest yearly in single cash flows with formulae RATE = (FV/PV)^(1/N)-1 or simple M.S excel Formulae.

But, here in this scenario there are complicate cash flows.

Moreover, these complicated cash flows are due to as you are taking loan somewhere and investing somewhere.

So, when there are complicated cash flows, we should calculate the return on the investment using “XIRR” function.

In addition, While using this function, you should put “-” value before the amounts going out of your hands.

Moreovre, “+” symbol before the amount which is coming or received in your hands.

XIRR is 15.94%.

If you see above image, The return from the land investment with return assumption 15% and loan interest rate assumption 10% per year.

But the external rate of return is 15.94%.

Why this is because, Normal CAGR formulae and XIRR formulae some times differ.

But the “XIRR” calculation is more reliable in calculating returns.

Here, In this case study, as you are investing in installments for the land, Your return is still above 10% rate of interest that you are paying to the bank.

But getting loan for 10% interest rate other than constructing house is impossible.

Let’s See what will happen if you have taken a personal loan or hand loan for an interest rate of 14% per year.

In addition, the return expected from land keeping same as above example 15% per year.

XIRR IS 14.66%

If you above image the ‘XIRR” return arrived is 14.66% in spite of takin slightly higher rate of interest (14%) per year.

But return 14.66% is lower than the “XIRR” return of 15.62%.

So, It is very clear that as the loan interest rate increases the “XIRR” return decreasing.

What is the reality within India with real estate investment( land or house ) with a loan?…

In above example, we have assumed that land price growth rate every year 15%.

But where it is written that you will surely get 15% return on land investment every year.

I will show case some examples, Why you should not believe that land investment will not give 15% return every year.

The above data I took from NHB RESIDEX. Click here to see.

If you see above image Zone C in Bangalore had produced highest growth rate in land and Zone E has produced lowest return.

Here, I will tell you “XIRR” return for both Zone C and Zone E.

Real estate growth rate in Zone C Bangalore from 2007 to 2015.

If you see above image, the land or real estate growth rate is 12.9%.

So, what will be the future value of 20 lakh if invested for 5 years in Zone C of Bangalore at 12.9% rate or return.

Land investment future value in Zone C of Bangalore.

If you see above image, The future of value of 2000000 lakh invested in Zone C real estate of Bangalore has became Rs.36,68,594.

But what if you have only 10 lakh lump sum to invest in real estate and you have taken 10 lakh as loan at 14% interest rate?

Zone C “XIRR”

If you see above image though land price growth rate is 12.9% (CAGR) but the “XIRR” you got is only 12%.

This happened because you have taken higher interest rate loan than the return you got from Zone C real estate investment.

Now, let’s analyze the ” Zone E” real estate investment “XIRR”.

Land Growth rate of Zone E of Bangalore

If you see above image land value has given a negative return of “-1.45%” in Zone E (Bangalore).

Then, What what will be future value of 20 lakh invested at -1.45% interest rate for 5 years period?.

Future value of 20 lakh after 5 years if invested at -1.45% rate of interest.

If you see above image 20 lakh investment made in Zone E real estate of Bangalore had became 18.59 lakh. As it has given negative return of “-1.45%”.

Now, let’s see the “XIRR” generated from this land investment as you have invested 10 lakh lump sum

In addition, if you had taken 10 lakh as loan for 14% interest rate.

‘XIRR” from Zone E (Bangalore) real estate investment with 20 lakh loan ( 10 lakh own money + 10 lakh loan at 14% interest rate).

If you see above image though land investment has given only “-1.45%” negative return, your “XIRR” is “-6.98%”.

Not only this return “-6.98%” is negative but also much lesser than the inflation “6%” for the same period.

So, it is very clear, The loan taken to invest Zone C and Zone E has same interest rate.

But the return generated from Zone E and Zone C are quite different.

As a result of this the “XIRR” generated from Zone C and Zone E of Bangalore real estate investment are also different.

In addition, It is also very clear that real estate some times will give negative return also, and sometimes the “XIRR” may be much below than the Inflation rate.

Moreover, The real estate investment may be good if you take a home loan to buy an own house only.

However, Own house investment also may not give more return than inflation even after low interest rate on home loan.

But staying in own house will give you comfort and happiness.

Hence, You should not treat your own house as an investment.

As the interest rate for home loan is only around 9% these days.

while at the same time personal loan interest rates are as high as 11% to 28% ( depending on your profile).

Now, Let’s see what is the other scenario available for you to invest to get more return than inflation.

However, in some Tier – 3 cities real estate prices have been grown as high as 13% last 30 years.

But this is due to only pure black money and hype among people that real investment is ever green investment.

Moreover, in these cities there is a big difference between registration value s and market rate values.

In addition, People in these cities are lucky till now that real estate prices have grown significantly.

But I strongly recommend them to be cautious and the prices may come down any time or prices may consolidate ( no growth in rates) for few years.

If any one of these two things which I said above happens then your overall return on investment (XIRR) may come down close to the inflation or much below than the inflation rate.

Scenario 2) What will happen if you invest in equity mutual funds instead real estate?

Here, In this scenario, if you invest both 10 lakh lump sum you have and also monthly Rs.21,247.04 in a sip of equity mutual funds.

In addition, the return expected is 15% per year.

Then the future value of the investment is as shown in the below image

What type of Investment options available in Mutual funds to inflation like real estate investment?…

In mutual funds there are different kind of equity funds available.

Moreover, these equity funds have the capability to deliver more return than inflation.

In addition, You can create wealth in installments unlike real estate investment (which need lump sum investment in singly go).

Again in equity mutual funds, you can choose Large-cap funds or Mid-cap funds or small-cap funds or multi-cap funds or balanced funds or balanced advantage funds or ELSS funds, etc…

What is the return expected from these equity mutual funds?…

Just Like real estate investment, in equity mutual funds also we can not guarantee the return that you can get on your investment.

But I will show you some of the funds return for last few years below.

One of the large cap fund return for last 1,2, 3, 5 and 10 years.

In above image, you can find one of the large cap fund has given 13.97% return on investment over 5 years time.

In addition, at the same time, average large-cap funds ( average return of all large-cap funds) have delivered 13.26 return.

One of the Multi-Cap Fund return over 1,3, and 5 years time period.

In the above image, You can see that one of the Multi-Cap fund has delivered a return of 19.03 over 5 year time period.

While at the same time, All Multi-cap funds average return over 5 years time period is 15.51.

However, if you look at the mid cap and small cap funds return may be higher than above funds over a 5 year time period.

What are the advantages of Equity Mutual Funds than real estate investment?…
  • The main advantage is diversification, You have seen real estate investment in Bangalore is different in different areas.
  • We can not diversify in real estate with a small amount we have.
  • But in mutual funds, even if you are able to invest monthly Rs.1,000, then also you can diversify your money among different stocks.
  • In addition, We can create wealth in installments with the help of systematic investment plans, etc.
  • But at the same time, we cannot create wealth in installments, we have to take loan if we do not have full amount to invest.
  • Liquidity is another main advantage of equity mutual funds.
  • You can liquidate your equity mutual funds within 3 to 4 working days.
  • This may not be possible with your real estate investment.
  • The main important advantage with equity mutual funds is you can follow asset allocation to safeguard your returns.
  • Not only asset allocation but also you can do re-balancing with the help of equity mutual funds.
  • This asset allocation and re-balancing concepts, I will explain in some other articles.
What is the real estate investment to consider for wealth creation?

Here, I am not saying that Mutual fund equity funds will definitely give you more return than real estate definitely every year.

But it is very clear that equity mutual funds too have the capability to deliver more return than inflation like real estate.

In addition, Both real estate and equity mutual funds returns are not guaranteed.

But, If you follow asset allocation and re-balancing based on your risk tolerance and financial situation and goal oriented investment.

The chances of getting high returns over and above inflation will increase.

Finally, Investment return depends on probability only.

So, Do not do mistake of investing in real estate with loans.

If you do so then you will out of funds to do asset allocation.

As a result of this any negative return will impact your “XIRR” hugely.

Hence, If you follow the right process, then the Probability ( chances ) of getting more return than inflation will increase.

Read What is in our hand while doing investment?… Click here to read.

Also, Read article about Debt Mutual Funds types by Sebi. Click here to read.

Also, Read an article Why you should not invest in Ulips for tax saving?… Click here to read

Also, read an article about how much profit you can get from chit fund investment?… click here to read.

Also Read, an Employee case study about investment planning… Click here to read.

Also, Read about How to calculate “XIRR” in mutual funds, real estate, stocks etc… Click here to read.

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